Gold Smashing Records as Fed Rate Cut Odds Increase Before Jackson Hole
The precious metal is dazzling investors, with gold prices scorching to fresh all-time highs ahead of the crucial Jackson Hole economic symposium. Fueled by rising bets on an imminent Fed rate cut, the market is rapidly repricing monetary policy expectations.
New Highs, Lofty Forecasts
• Spot gold hit a record $2,508.14 per ounce on Monday
• U.S. futures soared as high as $2,540.80
• Some analysts forecasting a rally toward $3,000/oz in 2025
BMI sees $2,700 if Fed cuts in September
Citi projects $3,000 by mid-2025, Q4 2024 avg of $2,550
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Rally Drivers
• Increasing odds of Fed easing igniting fresh upside
Lower rates cut opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold
Also weigh on U.S. dollar, boosting overseas demand
• Safe-haven demand surging amid uncertaintyU.S. elections, Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East flare-up
Jackson Hole in Focus
All eyes will be locked on Fed Chair Powell's speech Friday for any clues on policy path. A dovish pivot signaling imminent rate cuts could catalyze gold's next leg higher. However, pushback on easing bets may trigger a vicious reversal in the frothy precious metal.
Volatility is poised to surge in the days ahead as traders rapidly reprice rate expectations. Stay nimble and manage risk amid the rising potential for big moves in gold based on how Powell's commentary is interpreted.
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